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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (131526)	4/1/2006 9:43:09 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) of 209892

Some FA (but as I'm using the chart to predict the FA I think Elliott would approve?) Looks like a nice ending diagonal: stockcharts.com Still looks like an ABC correction from the lows: stockcharts.com Stock markets: This looks like 9 waves completing: stockcharts.com So does this: stockcharts.com Prechter's team is interpreting this as a double zig-zag: futures.tradingcharts.com For NDX, COMPQ, SPX various interpretations (5 waves up, W-X-Y, ABC corrections etc) are possible for the move from the 2002 lows but all seem near completion and NDX maybe over the other side already. The correction scenarios imply that the 2002 low will be taken out. USD is bearish: stockcharts.com Other currencies look bullish. Gold bullish: stockcharts.com Have been puzzling how one can have bonds rising, stocks falling, and USD falling, (and gold and maybe oil rising)... One catalyst is if the Fed stops raising interest rates now or is seen to be likely to do so... Long-term bonds are then less risky - so a shift from stocks to bonds domestically in the US and out of the USD simultaneously. Despite rising oil prices (and the rising price of gold) I don't buy into the strongly accelerating inflation hypothesis. Even longer term bonds in the UK for example have even lower interest rates. I am seeing that the global integration of the economy is going to drive developed economy prices down... rising commodity prices are going to have more of a depressing quantity effect on developed economies than a price push effect. Maybe that is also what the possible corrective structure in US stock-markets is signaling - fall in output rather than inflation ahead - severe enough to take out the 2002 low. Markets don't seem overvalued particularly now. Of course, much higher interest rates could depress them, but MUCH higher interest rates don't seem likely from what the Fed is signalling. Gold is being driven by demand for investment etc. in India, China, and among goldbugs and due to rising extraction costs it seems. Not a signal of coming inflation.

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