Futures Fourth Time - Monday 4/3/06
LONG DAY TRADES: COFK
MARKETS EXPECTED TO CLOSE HIGHER TODAY: SIK, GCM, COFK, COPK, COTK, SUK, CDM
MARKETS EXPECTED TO CLOSE LOWER TODAY: DXM
CATTLE: A slightly lower close would have been friend for June Cattle, but the market posted a new low. The Bears are still in control. Same goes for Feeders.
PORK: June Hogs closed lower as planned and it was a new low close to boot. That leads to a swing day on Monday.
BOT: May Corn splashed above the old high at 2.40, but could not hold it for the close. It does not smell like rejection at this point, but Monday is a swing day so let's wait to see how that sets the stage. The Soybean tree was shook very hard on Friday and there was no serious attempt to change that momentum during the day. This is the lowest close for 2006 and the next plausible support lies at the contract low of 5.59 « . I see no reason to buy, but SK is entering the seventh week of decline and that tells us to be sensitive to the possibility of a failure pattern against the old low. May Meal is also seven weeks down. However, it is approaching the contract low for the fourth time since last October. If there is rally potential, it should happen after new lows are made. May Wheat closed above the ten day average on the third day of rally so the minor trend upgrades to positive. The presumptive rally objective is a test of the fifty day average around 3.62.
METAL: May Silver is three up "but" so the odds favor a higher close. Ditto for June Gold. May Copper closed lower as expected, but it is not harmful to the larger bull trend. Here too, Monday is three up "but" and calls for a higher close.
N. Y.: Crude Oil stumbled a little on Friday, but it is not yet material. The thing to worry about is that seven up weekly timing should yank this market down over the next five days. May Cocoa closed lower as expected, but the pattern is friendly unless there is a close below 1480. May Coffee closed lower as planned and creates a moving average buy signal (first lower close above the ten day average). Also, Monday is three up "but" so let's buy COFK for a day trade. May Cotton dropped immediately back under the still declining ten day average, so Thursday's bump was an aberration. Monday is seven up "but" and should close higher. In turn, that will generate negative timing for Tuesday so the format will stay bearish. The lower close in May Sugar does no harm to the larger upward trend. In fact, it creates a friendly daily cycle for Monday.
FINANCIAL: June Bonds have the benefit of friendly weekly timing (3 down) and Monday is a swing day. The trend is down, but a lower close on Monday may set up a buying situation for Tuesday.
IMM: BPM closed lower as expected and the pattern remains bearish. Keep in mind that the weekly cycle is bearish for the Euro currency as it enters a swing day on Monday.
CRB: Monday is a swing day.
INDEX: Suddenly, the DJIA is the weakest Index, but it is not yet serious. Half way back to the January low offers a support target at 10,998, barely more than 100 points away. I wouldn't worry much unless there is a hard close below 11,000. SPM did not respond to friendly timing on Friday so the Index stayed below a declining ten day average. Nothing major yet, but it does suggest a few more days of corrective behavior. The NASDAQ closed lower as expected, but for the moment, it has the strongest pattern of the group. |
