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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: regli who wrote (57353)	4/3/2006 9:00:05 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 110194

I also see strong parallels to Japan, just ten years ago: finance.yahoo.com Add ten years to the dates on that chart. Really strong cycle similarity. In 2000, I used to take solace in the fact that we at least didn't have a real estate bubble, and so might fare better than Japan. Well, we've certainly taken care of that distinction, now haven't we... I think the Fed "learned" to shift to a more aggressive fight against a post-bubble deflationary fallout, but what they did is build an even bigger bubble. In the process they shifted the real damage in the stock market secular bear from the first leg down (as in 1930s US and 1990s Nikkei) to the next leg down. The good news, if there is any, is that we would be closer to the end of the secular bear than I'd figured. That would have us bottoming out around 2014, with losses of 75% in big indices like Dow and S&P, but perhaps only marginal new lows for the whole secular bear in tech-land. That 1994 base actually would be a pretty good spot for it to stop: finance.yahoo.com BC

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