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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: regli who wrote (57378)4/4/2006 12:29:25 AM
From: booyaka  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
How successful it will be, I don't know but I am looking for the Fed to pull out all the stops.
I was just thinking along these same lines today. I think the success of the Fed's reflationary efforts will depend on the timing. If the Fed moves to reflate early enough, I see no reason why they can't prolong the credit bubble. If they wait too long (i.e., until after the deflationary forces have taken hold), they'll probably fail. I think Bernanke will tend to err on the side of too early rather than too late because of his study of the Great Depression. Then again, the Fed might be forced to keep rates higher than they want to in order to attract enough foreign capital to finance the twin deficits. There're so many moving parts, it's virtually impossible to predict how everything will play out.

I am not looking for deflation in prices but expect deflation of purchasing power particularly in the developed world.
What's your outlook re: housing prices?
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