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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Schnullie who wrote (51330)4/4/2006 9:11:55 AM
From: ChanceIsRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
>>>These forces converged in the last 3 - 6 months...I suspect the results will become visible shortly.<<<

This is my first time attempting to ride a real estate bubble downwards. Mostly I "play" (I hate that word - this is investing) the swings in oil and natural gas.

It does stand to reason that there will be a phase lag in the chain of events in the housing decline. I would suppose that the homebuilders get whacked first - new or "spec" homes don't sell. Then the mortgage lenders start cracking because there are no new mortgages or refis. Then the mortgage lenders/banks start getting hurt on the foreclosures.

We are starting to see lots of news articles about the option ARMs and the unpleasant consequences of those holding high priced houses financed by them. It takes a while to work through to the bottom line and then the equity prices.

Somebody posted Kuntsler's most recent piece. I have to agree in large part. Companies like Toll are focused upon building new luxury homes. Are we still fabricating millionaires at the same rate??? What happens to exurbia when oil hits $100??? I don't think that the picture is so rosy for TOL. There may be a new market for reconstructing existing houses, but that is not cookie cutter.
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