The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: bentway who wrote (51509)	4/6/2006 9:51:04 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (3) of 306849

One builder MTH is up big at the open so I looked for news. As there was none I casually looked for chatter on the Yahoo board. Look at this post this morning. Land of the zombies on the long side: Comfort in numbers by: valuguy2002 Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 04/05/06 10:10 pm Msg: 4637 of 4637 DO you feel comfortable that as a short you seem to share the common view? Does it make you feel better when you see other posters backing your view? The more negative and seething your posts, the more I realize how right is to be long the HBs. Comfort in stats...the thing about stats...they are by definition historical. Stock prices look to the future. The stats that give you comfort now were discounted / expected by investors 6 - 12 months ago...which is why the prices went down LAST YEAR. What now? Notice the prices have HBs have stabilized and one might even argue going up (my positions are in the black). What does the future hold? Your stats don't tell you that...they tell you where we've been. HB's now trade 6 times earnings...they already reflect the slowdown. Don't be a CROAKER!

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