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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 48.31-0.8%3:59 PM EST
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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (183997)4/7/2006 12:22:53 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
The result has been a shift of share from Intel to AMD. The obvious question is whether this is a continuing fundamental trend, or a limited-run process ?

You should break that in to three possibilities.

1 - A long term continuing trend with AMD taking more market share.

2 - A relatively permanent change (as much as any changes in a dynamic competitive market can be permanent), but one that will not continue for much longer. In other words AMD gained share and in the future they will tend to have a larger share than in the past, but they won't keep gobbling up the market. Maybe the share gains continue for awhile, but there will be some limit, Intel will remain the dominant player in terms of market share for the foreseeable future.

3 - A temporary change that will be reversed. AMD has more share for now, but in the next few months to the next few years there share gains will be reversed and AMD will change back to the relatively marginal player it used to be.

The most rabid AMD fans seem to assume number 1. I'm not sure about 1, but I'm betting that it isn't 3. I don't see AMD's market share going down to the low teens any time soon.

Number 2 would still be "a limited run process" not "a continuing fundamental trend", but it would have an impact on Intel and a big impact on AMD.
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