Pollster: Voters think Bayh lacks passion
By Maureen Groppe
Star Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON -- Sen. Evan Bayh's biggest impediment to capturing his party's nomination for president is his perceived lack of passion, according to a Republican pollster who tested nine of the likely 2008 Democratic candidates before voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.
"He has to be more passionate. He doesn't have a choice," said pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz. "The only thing that holds him back is that they want to see emotion. It's one of those things where if I were working for him, I'd go to him and say, 'Senator, I can't change this. Do you want to be president or not?' "
Luntz showed 30 Democrats in Iowa and 30 in New Hampshire 10 minutes of video clips of Bayh giving parts of his standard speech to Democratic groups, taking questions at an informal Democratic gathering and appearing on a Sunday news show. The focus groups also saw 10 minutes of similar clips from the other potential candidates and used hand-held dials to record when they liked and didn't like what they saw and heard.
Luntz said Bayh was the toughest candidate to analyze because Democrats didn't love him or hate him.
Words participants used to describe Bayh after seeing the clips included "nondescript," "plain-spoken" and "ho-hum."
"Who? What'd he say? So not interested," one participant said.
On the positive side, the Democrats responded well to Bayh's description of his gubernatorial record, his talk about the need to get control of the federal deficit and a "down-to-earth" appeal, according to Luntz.
The other good news for Bayh is that Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, the field's early front-runner because of her universal name recognition, fundraising prowess and passionate support from many party activists, did not score the highest. Clinton came across as overly negative and even bitter, Luntz said. Her support eroded after the participants watched all the clips.
"What this says is that she doesn't have this locked up by any means and that she has several competitors that can really give her a run for her money," he said.
The Democrat most likely to do that based on the focus groups is former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. People liked that he'd had a career as a venture capitalist before running for office, liked what he'd accomplished on education in Virginia and liked his human, nonslick style.
"He's got every component that they're looking for and in the right balance," Luntz said. "Mark Warner ought to frighten Republicans if he were to get the nomination because he could win."
Spokesmen for Warner, Clinton and Bayh declined to comment.
Luntz's take on the other potential candidates tested:
Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin strongly appealed to the most liberal Democrats but frightened everyone else.
Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts may have worn out his welcome and needs a complete makeover if he wants the nomination again.
Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is like "an old crush -- someone you remember fondly, perhaps even more fondly than is deserved."
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has the best resume but comes across as too unfocused and undisciplined.
Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware is viewed as the smartest candidate but needs to talk about something other than foreign policy and Iraq.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack turned off Democrats by talking too much about religion and didn't demonstrate that he's "ready for prime time."
Luntz, known for his focus-group skills and his key role in creating the GOP "Contract with America," which helped Republicans take over the U.S. House in 1994, plans to do a similar test of the Republican presidential hopefuls this month. A test Luntz conducted for MSNBC two years before the 2004 presidential election identified Kerry as the most popular potential candidate among the Democratic participants.
Contact Star Washington Bureau reporter Maureen Groppe at (202) 906-8118 or at mgroppe@gns.gannett.com
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