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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (10778)	4/9/2006 7:52:24 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) of 12411

I'd think the model of Asian currency crisis. Lower dollar, especially against Yen, higher interest rates, which will crash the housing bubble, and cause a huge liquidity drain, and a painful recession, probably a new final low for the bear market in stocks, a little below 2002 lows for SP and the DOW; NAS could overshoot. After this crisis, I think, the bear market may be over (2008-2009 bottom or so; I may be too optimistic). Gold will correct at first due to liquidity drain, then go much higher. The dollar index could get to 60, but then again, the dollar drop will be against the Asian currencies. Euro (57% of the dollar index) is not a whole lot better. Derivatives could make the crisis sharp, but then again, it will end faster.

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