The author puts forth many numbers for consideration of future semiconductor action. I like his opening sentence "lead in",
<<The overall dynamics for the chipmakers are neutral at best, ....>>
As we have seen from several sources over the past many months, and very recently as well, chip sales are estimated to increase in 06, 07, and 08. I wonder what is needed to make a statement like, "the overall dynamics for the chipmakers is very good".:)
Tonight AH's, LRCX and AMD will be giving their quarterly results and outlook for the next quarter. A good report from LRCX would obviously help a lot to change the "dynamics" of the semi-equips. LRCX is supposed to report consensus earnings of 0.62 a share. The last quarterly report in December, they were supposed to report 0.39 and they reported 0.55, a 41 percent upside. The table below shows how LRCX has done since Jun 04 in terms of quarterly earnings estimates, actuals and percent difference.
- QTR QTR QTR
- EARN EARN PCT
- EST ACT DIFF
MAR 06 0.62 ?
DEC 05 0.39 0.55 41
SEP 05 0.30 0.35 17
JUN 05 0.44 0.47 7
MAR 05 0.43 0.44 2
DEC 04 0.53 0.59 11
SEP 04 0.59 0.64 8
JUN 04 0.26 0.38 46
Over this period, LRCX has not failed in achieving and beating the estimate - the question is, by how much will they beat their estimate this quarter?
Don |
