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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 210.32

-5.6%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: the Druid who wrote (250)	9/20/1997 3:08:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	of 164685

There is some tension at Motley Fool. The Gardner bros. have bought AMZN. The Boring boys (Greg and Randy) have excoriated Amazon.com. And I will say, the commentary on this thread seems pretty intelligent. The stock is clearly way, way overpriced and at some point is going to coast with the glide slope of a set of car keys thrown from a 747. The question is: How long can the Internet hysterics support this idiotic venture? From the Peter Lynch perspective, I don't like AMZN. I tried to buy some books from then with three problems: 1) They cost more than my local bookstore, 2) their availability is worse, and 3) you don't get to look at the book. Pretty damning from a retail perspective. PLUS, they are going to have competition soon from Borders (and also from B&N, although I take Borders more seriously because of their technical expertise). From the Warrent Buffet perspective, I don't like AMZN. They haven't made a dime, are hemorrhaging capital, and don't expect to make money anytime soon. From the Mason Barge perspective, I don't like AMZN. They suck. So they get up to a billion dollars in sale in five years. They'll be making $1.10 a share. Hardly worth a $45 capital investment in 1997. This baby is going to fall hard and fall far. It's just a question of when a lot of people begin to notice that the Emperor has no clothes. I'm going short as soon as I find a broker with shares to lend. The first sign of trouble and AMZN is falling into the single digits, where its proper valuation would place it. Has anyone else noticed the total absence of a hard earnings projection?

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