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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 276.98

-2.3%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29933)	4/12/2006 8:12:05 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) of 95432

Going along with the previous post, a table was presented by CSFB for LRCX which is shown below in summary form for 2006. - ITEM CY1Q CY2Q CY3Q CY4Q SUM SHIPMENTS(M) 510 515 424 400 1849 REVENUE(M) 430 500 480 450 1860 EPS 0.63 0.81 0.73 0.62 2.79 BOOKINGS(M) 515 530 425 375 1845 This exercise gives the "thought process" for the presently predicted 2H06 slowdown by many analysts. Notice the "rolloff" in Shipments, Revenue, and Bookings in the last half of the year. We can look at the difference between CY2Q and CY4Q in another simple table. - PCT - ITEM CY2Q CY4Q CHG CHG SHIPMENTS(M) 515 400 -115 -22 REVENUE(M) 500 450 -50 -10 EPS 0.81 0.62 -0.19 -23 BOOKINGS(M) 530 375 -155 -29 Obviously, these are some very large reduction numbers projected for 2H06. Just look at the Bookings number(s) - down 155M in the 4th quarter compared to the 2nd quarter, or -29 percent. In the meantime, in just the last few days, semiconductor sales projections for 06 have been increased. We are staring at the "cycle scenario", but do we really have "cycles" anymore like we have had in the past? Don

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