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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 276.98-2.3%Nov 18 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29935)4/12/2006 9:39:50 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (1) of 95432
 
This exercise gives the "thought process" for the presently predicted 2H06 slowdown by many analysts. Notice the "rolloff" in Shipments, Revenue, and Bookings in the last half of the year. We can look at the difference between CY2Q and CY4Q in another simple table.

This point was actually discussed in CC.
My personal impression was the questions were focused on what's wrong with my "thought process" after the analysts had jumped the gun.
Newberry also referred to Gottfried's bookings/billings vs global IC sales chart pointing out chipmakers capex continues to be below historical average.
He also mentioned that foundries could add capacity in what appears surprisingly small increments (like 3 to 5k wafer).
In different context he quoted order size is $30 - $50 millions - if I recall correctly LRCX had cases when they received orders for several hundred millions.
So rather placing an order for several hundred millions in one quarter they split it up over several quarters.
The cyclical nature is not a physical law - it's based humans making investment decisions.
While in the past "humans" speculated on anticipated demand they now make investment decision with the objective to match supply (capex) with demand (quoting Newberry).
To me a very educational CC


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