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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK)

NOK 6.080

+0.4%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Eric L who wrote (3867)	4/13/2006 11:54:15 AM
From: sisuman	Read Replies (2) of 9255

Eric, some speculative fun with numbers. Assumptions: * Jorma in Q4 dialogue said he expected Q1 market share to be flat (34%) or up slightly; network sales to experience seasonal decline Nokia shares now at 4092 million (4292 in Q4) Analysts expectations for Nokia - 70 million units; 8,340 Million Euros revenue; 824 million Euros profit; ASP of 98 Euros 1. Assuming analyst numbers: 70 m units X 98 Euros = 6860 Euros + 1480 Euros for networks (a 24% decline) = 8,340 total rev. With .134 opg. margin = 1116 Euros opg. profit * Same tax rate as Q4 = .738, so after tax profit = 824 million Euros; 4092 million shares = 0.20 Euros EPS 2. A more positive outlook: Assuming 72 million units (up 33.8% from 05Q1) X 103 ASP for Nokia, and networks seasonal drop of 18%, gives 9016 million Euros revenue With an improved opg. margin of 0.14 (Erics wish), yields 1262 million Euros opg. profit X .738 tax rate = 931 million Euros profit * With 4092 million shares = 0.23 Euros EPS - up 21% from 05Q1 and plus .03 Euros vs analysts 3. Assume Bank of America 74 million units and 215 industry units, gives a Nokia market share of 34.4% * Overall numbers work out to 9222 million Euros revenue, 953 million Euros profit and 0.2365 Euros EPS - up 24.5% from 05Q1 Can we expect to see numbers like options 2 or 3? Sisuman

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