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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK)
NOK 6.080+0.4%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: Eric L who wrote (3869)4/14/2006 7:28:52 PM
From: sisuman  Read Replies (1) of 9255
 
The numbers just don't add up. If Lehman is correct regarding Q1:

*Nokia - 73 million units (Lehman)
*Motorola - 45.5 million units (Lehman)
*Samsung - 29.0 million units (reported)
*SEricsson - 13.3 million units (reported)
Total = 160.8 million units

215 million units for industry - 160.8 million above total = 54.2 million combined units for LG and others. This is a drop from 74.2 million combined units in Q4 - a one quarter drop of 20 million units, or 27%! And their combined market share drops from 30.1% in Q4 to 25.2% in Q1. Note: LG's share gained 0.1% from Q1 to Q4 in 2005; Others share dropped only 2.4% for the same time period.

So what's wrong?

1. Lehman is too optimistic about MOT's gain in Q1 units; and, possibly, Nokia's number of units
2. Nokia, emphasizing increasing ASP's, is hiding a drastic drop in units sold and accompanying loss of market share in Q1
3. LG and Others have suffered unprecedented huge sales setbacks in Q1, relative to the five market leaders
4. The combined market for all is much larger than expected - 220 million to 230 million units
5. Some combination of the above

Eagerly looking forward to the remainder of Q1 reports - with evident concerns about the Nok/MOT relationship.

Sisuman
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