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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
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To: Norman Fogelsong who wrote (13730)9/20/1997 11:13:00 AM
From: Harry Ehrlich   of 61433
 
>What would you consider to be concrete evidence of a reversal?< Good question, Norman. Take my answer as an opinion only. Very few people, if any, know the answer to your question. Of course, many people will know the answer after the reversal and will cite all the reasons. But few will know BEFORE the event.

I would look for the following:

Technically, I would look for a breakout. There are various indicators, such as the breaking of trend lines. Overcoming the 50 day moving average on a high range day is an excellent indicator. Mastec (MTZ) just did that. Institutional traders rely on the 50 day and 10 day moving averages. The last three high days for Ascend have all been narrow range compared to the range of previous days.

Fundamentally, I would look for a positive earnings surprise or more good news like NTT. Also, one may see upward/downward motion a few days prior to earnings, as its hard to keep things secret.

I hope I've answered your question, however, just as an aside ... it's a coincidence but my wife knows Jack Schwager's wife (Market Wizards) and we bumped into Jack and his family at the local pizza shop about 2 months ago. Jack and I spent a few minutes discussing trading. One thing he said to me is "You're on your own". I absolutely agree. That's what trading is. Nobody will help you. There is no such thing as a good tip. There's only hard work.

Hope I haven't gotten too philosophical here. Those with similar or opposing viewpoints are welcome to jump in. Good luck with your trading.

Harry
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