Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: shades who wrote (49690)	4/15/2006 11:08:56 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (3) of 116555

Since Spock is a fantasy figure, the comparison seems somewhat unfair. I could just as easily have chosen to compare the Daleks and the Phoenicians and a similar but opposite point could have been made. The issue here is simply choosing the correct trend at the right time. If you pick the correct trend and ride with it you will generally do very well. However, if you ride the last trend which is similar to soldiers fighting the last war, your success rate is likely not as high. I was a tech investor in the 90s because my background is in technology since the 70s so that was easy an easy choice. However, this decade is not the decade of tech IMO and therefore bound to provide far less in term of returns in that sector than in commodities and gold. I am also a firm believer in the credit bubble and as such have to worry about the stability of the financial system. With such a frame of mind, I would be a fool not to have a significant allocation in PM's which are likely going to be the only forms of money that will retain their value once the credit bubble bursts. Once you recognize a bull market, try to stay on it and ride it. That in itself is a very hard thing to do.

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