Vivus, Why the Slide? Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Vivus, Why the Slide?

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To: Richard Singer who wrote (3678)	9/20/1997 3:01:00 PM
From: Louis Riley	of 3991

Just to recap some facts: Vinick's various entities (Vinick Partners, Vinick Overseas, and the "Discretionary Account" owned a total of 2,389,100 shares as of the close of business on September 12, 1997 (per the 13D filing). The shares were purchased for an aggregate cost of $70,996,336.33, for an average purchase price of $29.72. I doubt Mr. Vinick took a >7% stake in the company for a mere few points. On another note, don't forget that the company has consistently BLOWN OUT even the most aggressive analysts' estimates. The current estimates out there are: FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES VVUS Vivus Inc. 09/15/97 Industry: AdvTechMedDev SIC: 3841 Analyst Recommendation: 1.3 QTR QTR FY FY Sep 97 Dec 97 Dec 97 Dec 98 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.29 0.29 1.13 1.68 Number of Brokers 3 3 3 3 Median 0.29 0.24 1.08 1.61 Standard Deviation 0.02 0.09 0.10 0.25 Current High 0.31 0.42 1.26 2.02 Current Low 0.27 0.22 1.04 1.42 I think it's quite reasonable to expect the stock to eventually trade at 50 X next year's high estimate, which would put the stock at > $100. Just thought I'd post this to remind you guys that you want to raise your sights (and your sell targets) some.

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