Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (72981)	4/19/2006 9:58:36 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) of 94695

I just did some forward simulations on my NDX spreadsheet using my autoregressive indicator. There is the potential for a massive crash in coming days and weeks. I can't forecast a crash with the indicator, all I can do is plug in some values for the index and see whether the indicators they yield make any sense. Basically the model finds turning points. So if I plug in a number for tomorrow or next week or whenever and it yields a turning point value (greater than one) then I know that is a bottom or top. Very large declines are now possible before the bottom is reached. This wasn't possible even a couple of days ago, but the last couple of days rally has loosened things up and come to a potential top turning point on my weekly spreadsheet.

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