Novellus Message Board - Msg: 22378117

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Technology Stocks : Novellus

NVLS 2.400

+2.1%

Jul 24 5:00 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3628)	4/21/2006 12:54:01 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 3813

RE: "...June quarter guidance is too conservative, given the company’s aim to regain its reputation of meeting or exceeding expectations, and might disappoint investors. Revenue is projected to be in the $370 million to $380 million range at the semiconductor equipment manufacturer. To us, this demonstrates that Novellus’ under performance versus the other segments of the industry continues..." Revenue is picked as the key variable. It is key over a number of quarters, but NOT a single quarter, the next one. There is a 1 to 2 quarter lag (2 to 3 for ASML) between orders and shipments and a 1 to 2 quarter (2 in Japan) lag between shipments and acceptance (revenue recognition). So, next quarter's revenue reflects the order levels of 2 to 4 quarters ago. The analyst needs a spreadsheet presentation over a number of quarters with bookings, shipments, revenues, expected shipments (based on the order book), and expected revenues (based on shipments that haven't been accepted) to draw any kind of reasonable conclusions.

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