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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: shades who wrote (59097)4/22/2006 2:06:49 PM
From: bond_bubble  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
You know I used to see full service gas stations and woolworths everywhere - now I don't see them hardly anywhere - if banks run out of people to borrow - the will merge and contract and change - notice how so many want to keep walmart out of the banking business recently.

You are overlooking the effects of this merge and contract and change. That is what I call as bank failure. Not all banks went bellyup in 1929. Some survived. And probably banks failed in 1932 because they did not have 3 years of new business since 1929!! who knows? I'vent read anywhere that banks failed (in 1932) because noone was borrowing and hence the banks had to shut down offices. But I've read so many places that loans were difficult to get and no credit was flowing. Obviously, my statement would seem to make sense right? But ofcourse, when I present such an argument, you would back off saying, it was policy of the day or something like that so banks went bellyup. That is where you are falling into the traps of "hyperinflation". why would it not happen now? Noone taking loan and banks fail? well, we are not far off from the depression...

Just out of curiosity, what is your investment plan besides shorting? Are you betting on commodities believing in commodity hyperinflation? In 1929, the shorters made a ton of money - noone else...
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