Shades, Below is the quote from the link that you had posted:
query.nytimes.com.
"Beginning with 1930, when the median home value was $4,800, the census data show clearly that prices move down, as well as up. By 1940, the median value had dropped more than 50 percent to $3,000"
Please disclose how they get that number:
One rough measure of home prices over 50 years is provided by the Census Bureau, which has asked homeowners across the nation every 10 years what they think their homes would sell for. On that basis, it has reported a median home value once each decade.
I know many rednecks that lied on thier census reports in 2000 - HUGE BLACKHOLE LIES.
I post a link showing most today think a bubble is about to bust - but not in thier nieghborhood - that is not the most reliable source for info. But later down in the article they do a TITLE SEARCH - that is much more ACCURATE than peoples feelings of what they think they will get eh? Or LIED about to the census man.
-- Now, That is from the very link you provided. And it is claiming 50% drop in 10 years - NATIONALLY (national survey by census bureau) - AND NOT IN SOME COUNTY.
The link shows the house they did the title search on did not fall anywhere NEAR 80% or 50% eh?
I chose that particular link because it was in one of the claimed "bubble markets" there were thousands of markets were prices didn't drop 80 or 50% - even in those that did - over 10-20 years - many people did well even if they bought near the peak. Again chromatic tells you most middle class wethered the depression A OK.
I would think that between 1929 and 33 it could have fallen 80% - seems reasonable.
Perhaps - my house could fall 100% - I still wouldn't move - I am not in my house because of its appreciation. Vosilla has some property he didn't sell in time I think - if he holds on 5 or 10 years maybe he will still do very well even if he missed this past peak.
I'm not sure if you are going to distrust this stats as well.
I will always trust what is recorded in a title search before peoples self impression of what they THINK - you won't?
However, can you show me in AGD where Murray Rothbard says house price remain stable?
Chromatic said they fell some - but not below pre bubble prices. And a few years later much of it had recovered - are you one of those people that want to buy today and be a billionaire in 2 years? Good investment takes time - you get rich slowly with lots of diversification - at least that has worked for me. Before the internet bond bubble - I had to go to conferences all over to talk to people like I do now in virtual land - you don't know how blessed you are to get the community you get today that you had to put much more time, money, and travel into than now - PRODUCTIVITY baby! HAHA!
I'm EXTREMELY surprised by your facts.
Bondbubble - the facts and that link stand for all to review - how that median price was arrived at by peoples FEELINGS and how REAL prices were gleaned from a title search in a bubble county - which one do you put higher weight on?
You are saying food prices fell 50% etc but house prices stayed fairly stable?
I have proven with that link 1 house in a bubble area didn't go down much and went up a lot over a 10 or 20 year time frame - I have also proven that eggs fell by quite a bit in the same period - I don't have anything left to prove.
And you are defending it? Common shades, you think, people will buy food only at lower prices but not houses? Are your sure, you are going to stick to that fact?
I dont know the future Jay - that is why I diversify - I dont put all my eggs in one basket - go check out the canadian sands play by taikun - even Elroy admits when regular oil gets high enough in price - that will be economically feasible - get in early - even General Chen would support that I bet.
Actually, I believe in exactly the opposite of your facts.
OK - so you are going to get a heloc and go buy puts on XLF and CALLS on wheelbarrow companies right? All talk and no walk? Monday morning you going to cash in all the t bills and i bonds and take heloc out and buy puts on XLF right? Chen is selling puts on GOLD I believe - maybe you can do that too - it is going to 5 digits right? Everyone wants a mass blowup tomorrow so they can all get rich overnight - most geeks I know hate greedy people - most markets usually do too.
i.e Food prices dont fall much but asset prices fall like crazy.
Ok - then you need to go heavy into shorting the home index XHB right? Put all your eggs in one basket now - choose between XHB, XLF, or wheelbarrow companies - you want to find the ONE certain investment right? Diversification is for pussies like me. Not real men like you? :)
I believe this is Russ, Doug Noland's position. I tried to check for these facts in AGD - unfortunately, he only says food prices stayed high because of price support mechanism etc but never talks about asset prices (other than stock market).
That link I gave you shows you a REAL title search on a REAL house in a BUBBLE market - I gave another link to elroy saying a lot of this liquidity has only inflated prices -
Here are people agreeing prices are going too high:
trinity.aas.duke.edu
This paper employs a simple intertemporal model to show that presence of liquidity constraints can depress the price of a durable good below its net present rental value, regardless of the overall supply elasticity. The existence of price effects implies that the relaxation of liquidity constraints is not Pareto improving, and may in fact be regressive. Historical evidence, which exploits the fact that a clearly identifiable group, war veterans, enjoyed the most favored access to mortgage credit in the postwar era, supports the model. The results suggest that more recent mortgage market innovations have served primarily to increase prices rather than home ownership rates, and that such innovations have the potential to exacerbate socioeconomic disparities in ownership rates. (JEL D91; E21; G21;R21)
Many people couldn't move in the past - their house value fell and then skyrockted 10 years later - and they still couldn't sell or wouldn't sell - boom/busts in house prices just didn't affect them. You believe a serious event is coming and a huge calamity is about to befall us all - you don't want to be reasoned out of that belief - you didn't reason yourself into it. If I believed like you do - I would leverage myself to the HILT like Bald man from mars did back in 2000 and SHORT THE FUCK out of the XLF - bald man was pulling his hair out while the nasdaq just kept going UP AND UP and they ripped his farking BALTZ off - he lost everything - his wife, his land, his savings - he was RIGHT - but I don't think things crashed until after he went broke. Bald man came back to life on this thread and told you to short goog at 360 - that it would be double digits by years end - where is it today? Some people never learn! I love baldy with all my heart Jay - but don't invest like Baldy - keep your farking baltz attached. You put them out there for some bitch to kick - perhaps they will stomp those suckers FLAT!
theflyingsaucer.com |
