chih-
you are right. for the long term. what we are trying to prevent is the naive person who will buy at these levels with heavy margin and then be forced to liquidate when it falls substantially. sure, the long term will likely be ok. yes, in another year, the tide will turn, especially if they make a full transition to 64Mb during next summer and then begin (at the same time) conversions to 256Mb. heres the thing: if they jump a generation ahead, they have a higher margin product to keep them afloat while the process technology is optomized.
what i want to see is MU as low cost producer of higher density memories, not the previous generation. i mean, it is great they are low cost on 16Mb. the problem is we have moved on (or are in the process of moving ) to 64Mb. when they are lowest cost on future generations, then they are in a great position and deserve a HIGH growth multiple. if they were making 256Mb parts in quantity, and were the low cost producer of them, i would be buying now.
MU is going to have some problems over the next 2q's at least. stop trying to sugar coat it with rose colored scenarios of the future. be smart and buy in at a lower level. you say you bought in the 30's so you arent making that much right now. how do you feel about waiting a year or more for a return to the 50s?
good luck to all,
trey |
