H. Thomas Hayden: Osama bin Laden's Revenge
In my last column, I discussed "suitcase nukes." The question is not whether a radiological bomb or suitcase nuke will be used against the U.S., but when.
Osama bin Laden has said his revenge for Afghanistan and the Global War on Terrorism (read Al Qaeda), will be worse that the destruction of the World Trade Center. He is talking about a Weapon of Mass Destruction.
That can only mean an atomic bomb or major radiological device. Mass casualty chemical/biological weapons are not easy to produce or to handle. Additionally, chemical/biological devices will normally not produce the damage, casualties or psychological effect that could be accomplished by a nuclear device.
Radiological materials are everywhere -- hospitals (x-ray machines), some research labs, some food processing plants, nuclear power plants (spent fuel rods), etc.
It has been reported that up to 40-50 suitcase nukes are missing from the old Soviet Union. They are what are called Atomic Demolition Munitions (ADMs) or sometimes called Special Atomic Demolition Munitions (SADMs).
In 1996, it was allegedly reported that Mafia associates of Muslim Chechnya purchased a "shipment" of "nuclear suitcases" from disgruntled former Soviet KGB agents. The Chechen Mafia purportedly sold 20 "nuclear suitcases" to Osama bin Laden who paid $20 million in cash and two tons of heroin refined from the Al Qaeda laboratories in Afghanistan with a street value of $500 million. This was 1996, long before the invasion of Afghanistan.
While the above information comes from a dubious source, a more interesting source, on 8 September 2002, the Al-Majallah published a story claiming that bin Laden had successfully obtained over 40 "nuclear suitcases" from the Russian Mafia.
Soviet and Russian defectors reportedly confirmed that suitcase nukes have been sold on the "black market." This is a major concern because many suitcase nukes were under the control of the KGB, and never appeared on the lists of the US and the Soviet/Russian nuclear arsenals that were exchanged between the Russian and U.S. authorities.
Fortunately, such sophisticated weapons have a shelf life and require technical expertise for maintenance. Unfortunately, the number of unemployed, former Soviet scientists with such expertise is in the thousands.
What could be the possible targets - WDC, NYC and/or targets in TX and/or FL or, maybe the Super Bowl? My guess would be Texas and Florida for the economic and psychological impact. I say TX because it is the home state of President George Bush and Florida because it is the home state of the President's brother, Governor Jeb Bush.
Worse case scenario is the simultaneous, or near simultaneous, detonation of a number of nuclear devices in multiple cities, e.g. TX, FL, NY, CA, etc.
Most people who live in danger zones know how to plan for man-made disasters like earthquakes, floods or hurricanes. However, what can you do to be prepared for a Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD)?
First and foremost, HAVE A PLAN. Plan for your family, pets and important personal property. Talk about the plan. For example, what would you do if one family member is away from home and may not get home when disaster strikes?
Plan to have a point of contact in another state for all to call, like a friend or relative who can be the one for all to contact to pass or receive information on all family members. Plan where to meet if you have to evacuate your home and cannot get home. Have emergency supplies to live two weeks without going out of your home and have a plan to evacuate your home on short notice with just one suitcase for each family member and a box(s) with all important papers. Do not forget the pets.
Second, be prepared for worse case scenarios -- detonation of a nuclear device(s) -- "dirty bomb" or a suitcase nuke or any WMD. Know the prevailing wind in your area. If you are down wind (wind blowing in your direction) and you are near a WMD, you need to move fast. If close by, move at right angles to the wind. If you are up wind (wind blowing away from you) you may not have to move until directed buy emergency response authorities. Follow the directions of the emergency broadcast on the radio or TV.
Third, chemical or biological weapons are not very effective unless they have a sophisticated dispensing device, e.g. a crop duster aircraft. Chemical weapons can be dissipated in hot weather and are not very effective in cold weather. However, the same guidelines above apply in the case of any WMD. This does not include dangerous infectious diseases like small pox or the plaque. If notified of a serious infectious disease in your area, take all precautions or actions as directed by proper authorities.
ONE LAST COMMENT: I need to say that what we may face today is not science fiction or scare tactics to sell newspapers. The threat and the dangers to our society are real and we need to better prepare for a WMD.
"The 9/11 Commission Report" provided detailed analysis of the failures -- intellectual, moral, and technical -- that made the 9/11 attacks possible. The question now is: are the CIA, FBI, NSA, local emergency first responders, etc., geared to identify, prevent and/or respond to a Weapon of Mass Destruction, let alone multiple WMDs being employed in the United States.
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