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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (132059)	4/23/2006 10:18:17 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Hi mc, GM needs to resolve union mess, and strike possibility clouds revival.Strike would be the buy sign I think. HPQ and Intc are stinking up the joint the most.With semis selling at dollar record levels (unit count through the roof) and computers sales rates regularly projected by pundents to be sub 10% and actual numbers consistently coming in 13-15 % quarterly growth - I'm confounded as to why this bottom seems unending. There has to be a reversal in here somewhere. I'm somewhat surprised to see Msft leading,what with the delay of Vista into January 2007.Although the business version is on timeline. Certainly Vista's neat new features (shadowed second pages etc.) will bring about a computer ,desktop and laptop both,upgrade cycle. Maybe Mr. market awaits the release before it rewards the chip and box makers? Intel should be a great % move when it turns.The temptation of a good buy while catching the knife gives these scarred fingers an itch.GG Low seems to be 13,while many say 17.50 - 18.00ish. Any entry point thoughts? I had a nice run from 19 to 33 several years ago - be nice to do it again. Semi's are getting no respect -seems as though their latter cycle run just isn't here yet.That being said Ray'os SAR reversal is holding in there.A rally on monday-tuesday cold give us a breakout. stockcharts.com Xom may well be running into a fan of senate/congressional posturing (in an election year no less) and a top may well be rolling over. With an 8 year record level of crude inventory,and ethonal bringing on new additional supply that may well equal or exceed our current .8% demand increase,it may just be time for a rotation. I often remind myself that tops must tease investors into what is obviously the "its always going to make money in the future" sector before the bottom falls out. In between that top time duration, other sectors join the ranks of fully valued. Hard to say that has been accomplished by Intc or Hpq. Bob

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