......................The Art of Critical Thinking
re: The Art of Critical Thinking and Asking the Right Questions:
-- Trade the market, or trade the traders...trading the market?
-- Do events drive markets, or do markets drive events?
-- Are events driven by cause, or effect?
-- Do events drive the social mood, or does the social mood drive events?
From the most profitable Think Tank on Planet Earth:
The Billionaire Boy's Club of Lyford's Cay
This is not and endorsement of socionomics.org or, Prechter...but, it is and endorsement of the art of critical thinking and the willingness to pick up the box and turn it upside down and shake it... some of you may find this of interest:
re: "Socionomics" -- History's Hidden Engine:
socionomics.net
[Interesting comments on/from R.N. Elliot (the founder of Elliot Wave Analysis)and Robert Prechter]
CHAPTER INDEX
Fashion, Movies
Music, Elliott
Applying Elliott Forecasting
Hypothesis Applied
Spiral/Fibonacci, Herding
The Big Picture
More money will be made by asking the right questions, than in seeking the right answers...
-- Is the geopolitical social mood driving market events, or are market events driving the geopolitical social mood?
-- Are geopolitical events driving Oil Prices, or are Oil Prices driving geopolitical events?
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Message 22357277
["re: "Don't be greedy."
One door closes -- and another opens.
The undercurrent in Davos was the global financial imbalances.
Central Bankers have still been meeting behind closed doors concerning the derivatives crisis.
We've seen Central Bankers from Japan to the US -- throw a reflation (read inflation) party unlike any other.
The markets are now sitting atop a historic misallocation of capital...with a degree of "off the books" leverage - via derivatives...that even keeps fiat paper-hanging Central Bankers awake at night.
And for those who have ridden the commodity boom.. the amount of leverage in commodities is staggering.
A recent 50%+ collapse in Natural Gas in just a matter of days/weeks ?
stockcharts.com[l,a]dbclynay[d20051211,20060211][pf][iut][J69380818,Y]&pref=G
You won't find the right answers...until you start asking the right questions.
1998esque-Deja Vu all over again ?
More on "not being greedy"....and "asking the right questions" - later"]
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re: "not being greedy"
Over the last week:
Silver's High $14.70 -- Low $11.62
Gold's High $646 -- Low $610
Palladiums High $377 -- Low $343
Just another manic week in the commodity markets...or, something bigger?
Oil has the headlines...but, since one leap from black to "yellow" gold back in late 2000... the PM's have actually given a near 16:1 outperformance return.... yes, "sixteen to one"...
finance.yahoo.com
HUI 35 to 370 versus OSX 140 to 228
+957% versus +62%
Now of late, both Silver and Palladium have tripled the returns of gold...doubling since last September.
-- No one made the leap from "black" to yellow gold back in late 2000 by following the herd.
-- No one outperformed Oil to the tune of 16:1 by following the herd.
-- No one tripled the return of Gold over the last 7 months by following the herd.
There is yet another classic discrepancy between price and risk emerging.
-- similar to the one that existed between Gold & Oil back in late 2000...and between Palladium/Silver & Gold back in September.
Do you see it?
The Oil Bulls had to wait nearly 8 1/2 years to make the +50% run from the OSX 145 highs of 1997-98 to the 200+ level of today.
Markets move in both directions...
Others made the same return in a matter of days & weeks:
stockcharts.com[l,a]dbclynay[d20051211,20060211][pf][iut][J69380818,Y]&pref=G
The herd thinks outside the box...
But, if you want 16:1 commodity cycle outperformance, or short-term 3x outperformance...thinking outside the box isn't enough.
You need to pick the box up, turn it upside down and shake the hell out of it...
And then you need to be able to "think critically" about what falls out...such as determining whether the geopolitical social mood is driving market events, or are market events... driving the geopolitical social mood?
Why is Exxon-Mobil still sitting on that $30 Billion Dollar hoarde of cash?
James Baker knows...
The Carlyle group knows...
Goldman Sachs knows...
The Saudi Royals know...
The Council on Foreign Relations knows...
Even Matt Simmons knows...
And now, China finally knows...
Do you know ?
All is not ... as it seems,
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