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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 385.99+1.6%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: Gib Bogle who wrote (5757)4/23/2006 9:02:33 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 217736
 
Thanks. I buy that rationale, but noting that until price increases makes alternatives economic to compete. What happens is that we have 30 years of everybody and his uncle investing in technology (culminating with the tech bubble) and materials lagged.

Now is revenge time for materials. It doens't mean there are no materials. It means the under-investment is punishing the market. Materials are there to be taken. Just need the money to seek them, extract, transport them, refine them.

I am taking my experienc from Brazil where debt crisis forced the country to export its capital to pay for the debt.

Infrastructure is dilapidated and needs a good USD10 billion a year to keep expanding.

Same for oil, Libya, Iraq and Iran were embargoed for years. If those three countries would be producing fiull steam there would be more capacity.

Anyway let the prices climb and see what results:

If oil would go to USD100, and stays there for five years, the world economy will adapt to that new situation.

That because other alternaives wil become economic. Perhaps electricity and heat would be provided by nuclear and liquid fuels by a combination of biofuels and oil ands derivatives fuels.

Same for zinc, which I'm thinking from the top of my head is used for stainless and corrosionless steel. Alternatives will be found if the price goes too high.

Note that there must be a lot of money ging into increasing production hence this is what I keep saying the age of the materials.
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