i have been really interested in the whole socionomics idea. i have found that many people when broached by the subject, either dont understand its relevance or dismiss it as soon as they find out that it is being promoted by pretcher. neither is a valid responce imho. i think the value in it lies not in whether it is true or not, but in its corrective responce to the prevaling public opinion. the truth imho lies somewhere in the middle - and i dont say that because i am hesitant to form an opinion - but rather in the fact that the truth is rarely so cut and dried. i believe that events drive the social mood and the social mood drives events - the old idea of the feedback loop. however they are 100% correct in the idea that the conventional opinion believes that events drive social mood, and gives no credience to the idea that social mood drives events, if the idea has even been thot of.
which bring us to the next point, the social mood is driven by various cycles, which i believe the most relevant to our discussion the the kondratiev (sp?) cycle. most analysts agree that we are in winter or nearing winter. exxon is obviously planning on winter being a time that they will be able to purchase resources cheaper than today - being a resource company why else would they sit on such a hoard of computer blips? does that mean that they are rite? hardly, but different opinions drive the market no? i think it does mean that they realize that a depression is coming - and perhaps has even been planned by the elitists to be worse than otherwise - for the benefit of themselves. this leads us the larger question - are the planners - the elitists - the drivers of events or are events larger than the elitists? obviously the elitists thru the control of the media (think 911) are able to manipulate the social mood in the direction of the times, but are they able to control its outcome? are they able to control all aspects of that manipulation. me thinks no.
which leads us back to our investments. what will happen to gold and silver (other commodities) in the deep dark days of kondratiev winter? i believe that there are two or three events that should be clues to the answer. first, in the british gold sales we were never allowed to know the identity of the buyers - and since the auctions were at a single price they were oversubscribed - so WHO do you think got the gold at firesale prices? the little guy or the elitists? (clue - who manuevered the sales into taking place?) second, rothschild, got out of being a london gold marketmaker. hmmmmmm one of the richest families on earth, no longer needing to sell gold. any clues here? thirdly after the washington agreement gold spike, ashanti and others had gold hedging trouble and in the case of ashanti the banks got control of the company (ie gold). hmmmmm who controls the major banks?
these three signs point to me that those who have the gold will make the rules, just as they always have. the more things change the more they remain the same. so how about silver? i think that silver is more of a gamble than gold. with silver imho you stand the chance of making double that of gold or half that of gold which is why its a gamble. base metals? if we have a depression then base metals will fare poorly. i try to keep base metals a small percentage of my pf as a necessary compliment to the mining of silver and gold - copper often occurs with gold and zinc and lead with silver. i try to keep my pf 1/2 gold mines and 1/2 silver mines with no hedging - see ashanti above.
hi ho hi ho
its off to work we go
jon |
