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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2374)9/20/1997 11:00:00 PM
From: ForYourEyesOnly   of 25960
 
Cary: Low Sales Estimate

The following estimate of DUV stepper sales estimates are from VLSI Research (received via Mr. Sam on the SFAM thread):

1995 32 tools
1996 103 tools
1997 300 tools
1998 800 tools
1999 exceed 800 tools

I think these figures are much more realistic.

You mentioned that the move to 300mm may reduce the total number of steppers sold. This logic may make sense for CVD and RIE tools where the entire wafer surface is processed at once. However, for steppers, only a small portion of the wafer surface area is processed at a time (please confirm, Specialist and Mason). In other words, I would imagine the number of wafers processed per hour would go down for a 300mm stepper in comparison with a 200mm wafer stepper (all other factors being equal). If this is true, then the move to 300mm would not be a major factor in causing a decrease in demand.

I look forward to input from the thread.

THC
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