Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 297.52

-6.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (8079)	9/20/1997 11:11:00 PM
From: David K. Moy	of 70976

Hope you do not find this too much nitpicking. You indicated in your post how the big guys were buying the stock as evidenced by the block sizes even as analysts were telling people to sell. A block trade is the sign of an institution (pension or mutual fund) trading a stock. This means that some smart big guys were buying the stock from some dumb big guys. All too often small investors assume that the big guys know what they are doing because they are pros and sound so persuasive on CNBC or in the WSJ, etc. However, I know from dealing with them directly that often they know LESS than informed individual investors. Remember that the NAIC has claimed for years that amateur investment clubs outperform the S&P 500 index and that index has outperformed over 77% of mutual fund managers. I analyse CaseyJones and SEI data and can tell you that pension fund managers have similar horrific numbers. A famous portfolio manager in the Boston area always addresses the technology conferences such as Montgomery, Bear Stearns, etc. He tells other professional investors what he thinks is going on in technology and they listen in trancelike rapture because he is so famous. This fraud has a two star Morningstar rating and is ranked in the bottom quintile by Lipper. He recommended selling CPQ, DELL, and MSFT in order to buy AAPL and SGI back in 1995. He is one of the "big guys" and highly respected, especially by the Boston Globe. Please don't assume that because an institutional investor is buying or selling that they necessarily know what they are doing. Just look at their track records. They can't beat amateur investment clubs and can't beat the indices. If you do your homework and try to understand your investments you can do BETTER than most of the big guys. When the analysts are saying "SELL AMAT" hunker down and find out what is really going on. Hopefully the big guys will follow the smart little guys and make the small guys a little richer.

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