Can AMLN CONVERT 2.9 to 7 pounds body weight loss into HbA1c reduction in the on-going trials?
Dear Jerry: I looked at the AMLN's last month news release again and got a new idea. Although the 12 months results in type II patients are not statistically significant for HbA1c reduction, it is statistically significant for reduction in body weight (3.7 pounds, p=0.0023; 7 pounds, p=0.0001). Why? It is possible that because pramlintide slows down food release from stomach, it can act as a diet drug. However, the company said that placebo group used more insulin (compared to the 75 microgram dose arm, patients on placebo increased their average daily dose of regular insulin by 12%, p=0.0010"). Now, it is known that increased insulin use leads to increased body weight. if you look at the data upside-down, and assume the pramlintide groups to be normal, then it is the placebo group which has a body weight increase of 3.7 to 7 pounds because of the increased insulin use.
All AMLN's previously trial II data pointed to a 10% blood sugar reduction. Thus it makes sense that a 12% increase in insulin use can offset the whole pramlintide therapeutic effect and the 3.7 to 7 pound body wight gain just confirms the offsetting effect of insulin.
So, it all boils down to whether AMLN can control the insulin use of most of the patients in the on-going trials. If they can, my prediction is the body weight loss number will be replaced by much better reduction of HbA1c in both type I and II.
Have a good weekend.
D. Right
PS: Your first name is easy, you wrote it on some of your post. |
