Some Joe Osha comments from this morning, from Forbes:
forbes.com
AMD Makes Additional Gains On Intel
Mary Crane, 04.26.06, 9:12 AM ET
Advanced Micro Devices continues to gain market share against number-one Intel in the semiconductor industry, reports Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha in a Tuesday research note to investors.
“While AMD’s unit share was flattish in the first quarter at around 21%, its revenue share increased at the expense of Intel.”AMD gained unit market share in Q1 and Joe knows it.
That was the whole point of the exchange at Intel's cc between Michael Masdea
(Credit Suisse) and Otellini. Otellini said Intel ASP's were down less than 5%,
yet CPU revenues were down 14.9%, so a 4% ASP drop would indicate an 11.3% drop
in CPU units at Intel. Meanwhile AMD CPG revenues were down <1% and ASPs up 7%, therefore
units were down 7% (1.07x0.93=0.9951). So if AMD's market share was 21% in the 4th quarter,
it was (0.21x0.93)/[(0.21x0.93)+(0.79x0.887)]=21.8% in Q1. So I guess 21.8% is "around 21%"
at Merrill Lynch.
Osha says AMD can expect to gain further market share in the second half of the year, especially in the server and desktop markets, benefiting from rising average sales prices for AMD microprocessors that are currently selling at close to $100.
Amid overall declining desktop-processor sales, which decreased by 12%, quarter over quarter, AMD still managed to capture more than 20% of the market’s revenue share. AMD’s units declined less than the industry average, while its desktop unit share against Intel increased to 26% from 1% [sic -- "by 1%"], doing Intel the most damage in the high-end of the market.
AMD’s progress in the server market “continues to be dramatic,” according to the analyst. The company’s server processor unit volume grew by 26% while the over all market declined by 6% quarter-over-quarter.
AMD now holds 22% of the server market in terms of units, 27% of the market in terms of revenue and should have a technology edge on Intel in the server market through 2007, Osha says.
Despite these gains, the analyst predicts Intel could regain some of its market share in the second half of the year and has already gained unit share in the notebook market with the launch of its third-generation Centrino notebook, codenamed Napa.Where does this come from? Didn't AMD claim just the opposite?
Still, while Intel’s average sales price in the notebook market fell 3%, AMD managed to keep its revenue share flat due to a richer product mix.
That accomplishment aside, Intel still maintains a solid position in the notebook market.
Elsewhere in the sector, NVIDIA (nasdaq: NVDA - news - people ) maintained its overall share, Osha says.
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mixed bag from Joe, but his backpedalling on calling Intel unit share "flat" bothers me.
Petz
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