To All:
I have been monitoring this thread for a while. As a developer and a trader I have a vested interest in this stock from many standpoints. I am firmly bearish on AOL for several reasons. The only 2 things that are good about this company are:
1> As somebody mentioned, the chat rooms online are really good. But the censorship kills it.
2>xxxxx@aol.com is an easy mail address to remember. My mccafs@ix.netcom.com sucks.
My reasons for being bearish about this company come from a technical standpoint. I have been developing activeX controls and plug-ins for IE3 and Netscape for the last 2 years. I was blown away by the functionality and ease of development then. During the next few weeks when the world gets a look at the production release of IE3 and Netscape Navigator 3 AND most importantly the applications and ease of development these products provide, there will be an explosion of applications creativity the likes of which has not been seen since the advent of paper. By this time next year, any current uniqueness of AOL will be forgotten.
I make this assumption based on just the current IE3 and Nav3. Wait until IE4.0 is released with integrated internet objects on the desktop!!! Do you honestly thing anyone will want to go the AOL when everything is at your fingertips on the 95+ desktop?!! I have the beta IE4.0 and I cannot say loud enough how this is going to nuke AOL and other types of similar services. It is a shame but that's the breaks.
I recently read in a research report published by a large global Investment bank that AOL spends on average $45.00 per user in avertising. I do not believe with a falling subsciber base and fierce internet competition that they will be able to keep this up. If they do not, most people will go to other ISP's which they will probably do anyway. It is also just a matter of time before your ISP becomes the phone company and it is all integrated into your phone bill.
As for other technical issues, there are sound and video and conferencing applications being developed and planned right now through the internet and IE3 in particular that will make us all wonder in a couple of years how we ever got along without them. This reminds me of the ATM machine. But the main advantage to this technology will be that anyone with a html editor, or Visual Basic, or a plethora of other tools will be able to custom tailor their environments. I do not think AOL is a good platform for development in applications, or capital appreciation for that matter. Get out now before the bloodbath really begins. I see $20 by end of year.
One more thing, it makes me sad to think that soon Microsoft will be even more dominant in almost all aspects of computing. Netscape's days are numbered as well. I trully hope that companies like Netscape and AOL and Novell will somehow develop creative solutions that will COMPETE with MS. You see what competition from Netscape did to MS, they kicked ass. With no or insignificant competition I wonder if they will be as technically innovative. I certainly hope this will happen, but as for companies like Novell, and AOL especially I invest with my head not with my heart. Buy your put options now while they are still reasonably priced because of non-technical analysts oblivious to what is coming in "The Road Ahead".
These are my opinions. Thanks for reading and I am sorry it took so much space. E-Mail me if you wish.
Thanks. S.M.
P.S. There is a great radio commercial in the New York area for a local ISP. It starts out with a man coming home from work and noticing that the lights are out in his house. He comes in and asks his wife what haapped. She replies that the electric company has cut off service. Shocked he goes to get a drink of water. Nothing comes out. He tells her the water is not coming out and she says that has been cut off as well. Finally, he gets upset and goes to call and straighten this all out and receives no dial tone. "Dont tell me", he says, "the telephone has been shut off as well". She nods. He says honey we both make a good salary, what happened, we can afford our utilities?, she replies that the AOL bill was so high that they could not afford to pay anything else!!!
The first time I heard this I pulled my car over I was laughing so hard. But I have now seen 2 cases in the last year when this almost became a reality. It is really sad and an indication of the future of AOL. Get out NOWWWWWWWWW!!! |
