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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana
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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1028)4/28/2006 5:52:13 PM
From: Bill Wexler   of 6370
 
HAS - perhaps the biggest problem is that investors are assuming that the Marvel license will replace the lost revenue from the Star Wars license. I doubt that - strongly.

1) The terms are not nearly as generous.

2) The company is counting on Spiderman 3. It's due to be released in 2007...hopefully. But it seems that Hasbro got into the Spiderman thing a day late and a dollar short. They are also hoping for some spin from the Dreamworks Transformers movie (also slated for 2007 release). It is highly doubtful that the Transformers franchise - also long in the tooth - will amount to anything...and I will place a bet now that the company will end up eating a lot of inventory.

3) The Marvel universe just doesn't work as well in the toy business as the Star Wars universe. Star Wars fans tend to collect every character in the universe, not to mention all the peripheral accessories (light sabres, ship models, etc.) Marvel fans tend to have a single favorite character, tend to spend more on the comics and films, and when they do buy toys, they usually purchase only the small action figures.

4) The board games are not even worth discussing because their popularity waxes and wanes. We're not talking about a high-margine, high-revenue growth model. You can't even put a China spin on the board games because it is a country enamored with electronic/internet gaming, and - obviously - you ain't gonna be selling a lot of copies of "Monopoly" in China...except the pirated ones...that is.
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