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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1030)4/28/2006 6:35:22 PM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (3) of 6370
 
More on CC - in my opinion, an interesting "tell" is Sandisk's (SNDK) 4/21 report:

marketwatch.com

I wouldn't consider shorting SNDK..but I was intrigued by the fact that the demand for memory for everything except mobile handsets was slacking off.

I don't think it's doom for CC (at least - not yet :) ), but - obviously - the retail outlets have been experiencing some flattening of demand. CC's current stock price is discounting a much rosier outlook. I think it goes lower because revenue is gonna be a bit light, and there's definitely going to be a bit more margin pressure coming from all directions. CC's margins are significantly thinner than BBY's, yet it currently trades at a much higher P/E.

I think fair value is closer to 22 - 23.
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