Companies that BENEFIT from a recession Message Board

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Non-Tech : Companies that BENEFIT from a recession

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To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (11)	4/28/2006 7:07:21 PM
From: zebraspot	of 34

True, the wait for real estate to finally give up the ghost is a little like the wait in the late 90s for the Amazons and Ciscos to do the same -- but it was a wait that was worthwhile then, and probably now. I like puts in the REITs, and the couple of REIT-related bear funds are OK for a less leveraged bet. Not sure that some REITs have discounted a correction yet -- Avalon Bay (AVB) for instance is hitting new highs, and put premiums are reasonably priced. The yield-addicts are sticking with them and rationalizing anyway they can to continue to believe that NAV is a solid support. Apartment REIT investors, for instance, still seem to believe that there is rabid private equity buy-out potential and condo-conversion potential not fully priced in. I think they're naive. Cap rates are going up with interest rates, so NAVs are coming down. Condo-conversion is last year's news. These shares have lots of room to drop when the the yield chasers realize they can do better, with less risk, in CDs or treasuries. They should drop very fast and hard once it starts. Thanks for your feedback on PP and GFX. Gold is looking like the thing to have and hold.

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