Titanium Metals Corp (TIE) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Titanium Metals Corp (TIE)

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To: seasons2006 who wrote (210)	4/29/2006 11:51:04 AM
From: PLegee	of 229

Seasons, TIE is an absolute buy at these levels, I think we continue to trend up with the demand cycle for years to come . . . though at a more subdued rate than in the past. ATI just posted this week and their titanium sales were up 62% I believe, processing all the TI they can, constrained only by capacity. Their conference call also eluded to the bullish TI demand for years to come on just the committed orders of BA and Aerospatale (EADS). CRS's earnings were through the roof last week as well in no small part to their TI production. BA comments that this sales cycle is different than the one in 1990, this one has more legs as foreign orders are pouring in while the domestic US market has yet to participate. Energy efficiency is the carrier theme and TI fits that need perfectly. Booked orders are so strong, that BA is also seriously considering another production line to keep up with the demand, even after being burned for over capacity as recently as 1999. BA's biggest concern though is the ability of its suppliers to keep up with the demand. China has made comments that they plan to purchase over 10,000 passenger jets by 2020 . . . in addition to their current orders. Additional TI capacity by ATI (2006) and TIE (2007) will only help, not only to the bottom line of the respective companies but keeping some order to the skyrocketing TI spot prices. My biggest fear (along with the usual caveats) is that unchecked TI commodity price increases begin to restrict demand or cause order cancellations. Composite materials will be used to a greater degree in all future commercial jets but that threatens aluminum and other alloys, not the TI usage on the superstructure. The TI percentage on new generation jets will increase, not decline. Your timing on your purchase could be perfect, TIE is scheduled to report on or before May 10. Earnings will be phenomenal. Long Term Agreements (LTAs) with major customers have all been repriced at much higher rates and I believe future LTAs will have built in inflation modifiers. My most recent purchase was at $68.75 and I have no concern for its long range prospects. Best of luck - Paul

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