Brian--and Frostman,
Yes, the ABC correction has been changed and GET now shows VVUS to be
in wave 3. VVUS has done this so many times in the past, only to be
changed to another series of ABC corrections that this is one stock
that just doesn't seem to lend itself to Elliot wave analysis. The
price action has just been too unpredictable or erratic.
Conventional TA shows VVUS is no longer extremely oversold
as it was in mid-August, and is approaching overbought, but not
significantly so. Chande's Stochastic of RSI at different time ref:
8 day 14 day 34 day 40 day
Aug 19 3.5 12.3 14.3 28.3
Sep 19 80 67.5 78 60
Below 20 is oversold, above 80 is overbought (scale 0-100). At 80,
VVUS is barely overbought short term, but in a strong up move, a
stock can stay above 80 (8day) for a couple weeks or longer. VVUS
stayed above 80 from 5/20 to 6/5 before a minor retracement.
Slow Stochastics (both 8,3,3 and 14,3,3) are 85/76-somewhat
overbought.
Gann support/resistance is my best or most favored method for
determining S&R. Drawing Gann lines is about as complicated as EW
numbering--a lot hinges on where you start the EW count or where you
start the Gann lines. The logical place to start VVUS Gann lines is
the 5/13 low, and from here VVUS rose to the first Gann resistance
(1x4 line) on 6/25 and then perfectly followed that line down to 1x1
support on 7/2. VVUS then rose to the next Gann line (1x2), hitting
it on 7/29 and rode that resistance line down till 8/20. VVUS then
started its present rise , hitting the next Gann resistance (1x1) on
Wednesday. IF VVUS repeats the last 2 retracements, it should
start following the 1x1 resistance line down to support at 29-30.
Interestingly, the resistance line crosses the support line @29 on Oct
8th--the day I think VVUS's earnings are due out? There is weak
resistance to any upmove at 35-36, and stronger resistance at 40-42.
CCI 13 (commodity channel index) is bearish. It peaked at +245 on
Wednesday, and dropped to +155 Thurs and +154 Friday. When a stock
is above +200 and then drops below +200, it is a sell signal. A strong
stock may pull back a little and then resume its upward trend. VVUS
has been above +200 and then dropped four times since March. Twice
it rose 5 days before retracing (while the CCI was falling). The third
time (9/3 peak) VVUS fell without delay to its 9/15 low. This time??
BTW, the 13 day CCI has been remarkably accurate at picking VVUS lows
on 7/1, 7/25, 8/15 (turned 3 days early). Sep 15 wasn't a buy signal
as the CCI didn't fall below -150.
The CCI is available on a number of free internet sites--but I would
recommend using +200 and -150 rather than the generally accepted +100
and -100. As the name implies, this was originally developed as a
commodity futures indicator and stocks are much more volitile than
commodities (commodities use 5% margins and that is what makes them
so risky--not volitility!). Using +100 and -100 causes too many whipsaws.
Brian--I'll email you later re: AVX
Regards,
Gary |
