SEASONS OF GOLD
by Doug Casey
Chairman, CaseyResearch.com
April 28, 2006
The April 2006 issue of the International Speculator leads with the article below on the seasonality of gold. (To sign up for your copy, click here.) Included in the article are charts by analyst extraordinaire Bud Conrad, showing the monthly average annualized increase in gold since 1975. Given the current gold trend, I urge you to give gold and gold stocks an appropriate place in your portfolio. Doug
Long-term subscribers are already aware of a resource market phenomenon broadly referred to as the "quiet season," which we here at Casey Research tend to view as the "Shopping Season."
You also might call it summer.
As you can see in Chart A, which summarizes gold's monthly price moves over the past 30 years, the yellow metal typically shows weakness from February to April, rallies in May, then heads down for summer. In August, gold typically begins to rebound and moves up pretty much for the rest of the year. Of course, this is an average pattern, not an invariable one. In 10 years out of the last 30, gold dropped in the fourth quarter.
Even so, the long-term data suggests the average pattern is worth paying attention to.
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