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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 270.83

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (30236)	5/3/2006 1:38:06 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95456

I think the possible different scenarios of SCE and general market performance in the next 6 to 12 months are many. We are not going to know the total of Apr, May, and Jun NA order input performance until sometime in middle to late July - still a long way to go. Then we will have to wait some more to see what is going to happen to the monthly order input results in 2H06. Ultimately, we will have a peak in order input, however large or small, at some point in the future. At the moment we are in an uptrend. A "small" retrenchment in order input shouldn't have much impact on earnings. If this happens, SCE stock prices should dip a little, and then recover anticipating the next peak in the cycle 9 to 12 months away. This is what has happened in the past, and apparently, this is what the "market" wants in the future. Don

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