FSII - The Worst is Over? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Joe Dancy who wrote (1452)	9/21/1997 5:49:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	of 2754

To All, The following is the results for the group of stocks I follow through the past week. 09/12/97 09/19/97 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE Submicron Systems 3.50 4.25 21 Ultratech Stepper 28.13 32.13 14 Pri Automation 48.25 54.69 13 Gasonics 20.00 22.38 12 Micrion 21.88 24.38 11 Phototronics 54.25 60.00 11 Brooks Automation 34.88 38.00 9 Asyst Technologies 41.38 45.00 9 Credence Systems 50.00 54.13 8 Integrated Measurement Systems 16.50 17.75 8 Trikon Technologies 10.50 11.13 6 Integrated Process Equipment 31.38 33.13 6 Novellus Systems 108.00 113.50 5 Mattson Technology 14.56 15.00 3 Silicon Valley Group 33.94 34.88 3 MEMC Electronic Materials 31.56 32.38 3 LTX 7.25 7.38 2 Applied Materials 96.63 97.69 1 Helix Technology 62.25 62.38 0 Watkins Johnson 34.81 34.88 0 Tegal 8.75 8.75 0 CFM Technologies 37.00 36.50 -1 Cohu 52.00 51.13 -2 Kulicke & Soffa Industries 54.00 52.75 -2 Teradyne 55.13 53.56 -3 Electroglas 31.50 30.31 -4 FSI International 18.81 18.00 -4 Etec System 63.00 59.75 -5 Genus 7.53 7.13 -5 Semitool 19.75 18.63 -6 Aseco 17.81 16.75 -6 Photon Dynamics 7.25 6.75 -7 Nanometrics 13.50 12.56 -7 KLA Instruments 75.13 69.88 -7 Lam Research 55.81 51.88 -7 Veeco Instruments 72.50 66.88 -8 Speed Family 56.38 51.63 -8 TOTALS 1396 1408 1 FSII took a hit this week at -4 percent while the group went up 1 percent. Semitool and Teradyne also went down big time during the week. I wonder what is going on? The results for the group since the 6th of June are as follows: 6/6/97 09/19/97 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE Asyst Technologies 19.63 45.00 129 Brooks Automation 17.50 38.00 117 Gasonics 10.88 22.38 106 Veeco Instruments 33.44 66.88 100 Credence Systems 27.50 54.13 97 Nanometrics 6.88 12.56 83 Integrated Process Equipment 18.38 33.13 80 Kulicke & Soffa Industries 31.13 52.75 69 Submicron Systems 2.56 4.25 66 Helix Technology 39.50 62.38 58 Ultratech Stepper 20.50 32.13 57 Applied Materials 62.50 97.69 56 Speed Family 34.00 51.63 52 Novellus Systems 75.00 113.50 51 KLA Instruments 46.38 69.88 51 Lam Research 35.25 51.88 47 Cohu 34.75 51.13 47 Pri Automation 37.25 54.69 47 Micrion 16.80 24.38 45 Semitool 12.88 18.63 45 Mattson Technology 10.38 15.00 45 Etec System 41.75 59.75 43 Silicon Valley Group 24.50 34.88 42 Aseco 12.13 16.75 38 Phototronics 43.75 60.00 37 Trikon Technologies 8.25 11.13 35 Teradyne 40.50 53.56 32 Genus 5.63 7.13 27 FSI International 14.38 18.00 25 Tegal 7.13 8.75 23 LTX 6.13 7.38 20 CFM Technologies 30.72 36.50 19 Electroglas 25.56 30.31 19 Watkins Johnson 31.38 34.88 11 Integrated Measurement Systems 17.63 17.75 1 MEMC Electronic Materials 37.00 32.38 -12 Photon Dynamics 7.75 6.75 -13 TOTALS 947 1408 33 This time I remembered to account for the split in ASYT. It is number 1. Not only that, it has been the "star" of the group and it shows no sign of slowing down. Does anyone have a prediction when it is going to stop going up at a constant angle? I have been looking for a good indicator that would provide some correlation to how well a stock would do in the future. One of the statistics I kept was from Zacks. It has to do with the ranking of each stock with respect to its peers in the categories maintained by Zacks. For instance, this week ASYT is ranked 2 out of 36 stocks. Dividing 2 by 36 gives a ratio of 0.06. FSII is ranked 25 of 36 stocks for a ratio of 0.69. In this way a ratio can be calculated for each stock that has a Zack's ranking. The smaller the ratio, the higher ranking by Zacks. The table shown below is sorted the same as the table above - by ascending profit performance over the June to last Friday: 06/06/97 09/19/97 ZACKS PERCENT 06/06/97 09/19/97 COMPANY CHANGE RATIO RATIO Asyst Technologies 129 0.19 0.06 Brooks Automation 117 0.78 0.78 Gasonics 106 0.54 0.28 Veeco Instruments 100 0.32 0.50 Credence Systems 97 0.68 0.34 Nanometrics 83 0.23 Integrated Process Equipment 80 0.49 0.44 Kulicke & Soffa Industries 69 0.24 0.19 Submicron Systems 66 0.89 0.56 Helix Technology 58 0.56 0.32 Ultratech Stepper 57 0.70 0.44 Applied Materials 56 0.38 0.22 Speed Family 52 0.57 0.75 Novellus Systems 51 0.43 0.53 KLA Instruments 51 0.43 0.55 Lam Research 47 0.46 0.56 Cohu 47 0.59 0.64 Pri Automation 47 0.30 0.42 Micrion 45 0.61 0.69 Semitool 45 0.49 0.81 Mattson Technology 45 0.86 0.89 Etec System 43 0.11 0.39 Silicon Valley Group 42 0.70 0.69 Aseco 38 0.21 0.21 Phototronics 37 0.38 0.32 Trikon Technologies 35 0.92 0.92 Teradyne 32 0.57 0.59 Genus 27 FSI International 25 0.76 0.69 Tegal 23 0.05 0.11 LTX 20 0.50 0.62 CFM Technologies 19 0.03 0.08 Electroglas 19 0.84 0.58 Watkins Johnson 11 0.81 0.83 Integrated Measurement Systems 1 0.39 0.46 MEMC Electronic Materials -12 0.20 0.78 Photon Dynamics -13 0.82 0.83 TOTALS 33 You can see there is no relation to performance by looking at the first 4 entries in the table. ASYT looks reasonable - tremendous gain and the ratio improved considerably. BRKS had the second best performance, but the ratio didn't move. GSNX did what was expected, but VECO had the 4th best performance and the ratio deteriorated considerably. As you go through the list, anomalies abound everywhere. Very poor correlation in ranking to future performance is shown by trying to use this parameter as an indicator. Regards, Don W.

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