If I recall correctly, the stock has already been US$4/share. At $5/share, with <5M shares out, the cap is <$25M. Their potential market is over 50 times that, based on my estimates and others I've seen. I think the insiders know how explosive the potential growth here is and want to maximize their return. If "this group" refers to those who have bought in the last few months, that's hardly enough shares to satisfy a takeover.
Of course, it's hard to argue with a quick doubling or more of one's money. If I haven't stated it here before, my policy on an investment such as this is only to put in money I can afford to lose, and I have a long time horizon on it. So, I guess I was assuming a similar approach on the part of others. I suspect it's the kind of stock that can drift and do next to nothing for VERY long periods of time, but then suddenly spurt up, when it becomes so obvious to everyone that they are for real that no one is willing to sell and the people following it at the time want in. That *may* be a year or more from now, for the initial spurt. Such a scenario might happen several times over the next few years. I don't see any evidence for an immediate buyout -- but if I had the resources I would certainly be investigating the prospects of doing so.
So, my thought was for a few years down the road. I was imagining they've started to show dramatic earnings from their deals, have built a new plant, shipped 60M lbs in the last year, showed earnings of $4/share and have been growing at over 150% yearly for a few years with prospects of similar growth for the foreseeable future, because they still haven't saturated even 5% of their potential market. In such a situation it isn't hard to imagine the stock to have appreciated to at least $60/share, while they would still have huge potential gains ahead.
Regards,
-DT
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