Ray, a few posts back I sort of laid out what brought me into a short position (very quick summary: sharp move upwards on IMHO little signficant fundamental news combined w/ possible negative reaction to upcoming MU earnings). Suffice it to say that if I thought a split was imminent - I would have delayed entry. The price was definitely in split territory, but my assumption was that if it was coming, it was going to be whenever they released their earnings. Assumed wrong. Whoever, Dr. Arvind is - he nailed it on the split call, so give him credit.
If it's "buy the rumor, sell the news", and expectations of a split fed into the recent strong move up, well, part of me is thinking "alright, fine, that's out and (at this point) I can live with the reaction". I'm also making the guess that it's not going to ride it's 21-day Bollinger Band, but will pull back. It's done both in the past, but the last time it rode the band, it was in the wake of a huge, monster earnings surprise, so in my thinking it was justified. I'm not seeing that type of fundamental underpinning to sustain a ride. However...
The Montgomery Conf. concerns me, but I'd find it incredible that the good money managers out there haven't already gotten a fairly good handle on TI. Then again, there probably are a lot of MM's out there who shouldn't be managing a McDonald's let alone other people's savings <g>
Techwire had a piece on a new DSP out of Siemens AG over the weekend. I read it and my head fell off onto my keyboard. Not because the Siemens' chip was good or bad, but because it made me realize how little critical mass I have in terms of piecing together some of the key technical issues that could decide who wins or loses market share going forward.
I totally agree w/ you when it comes to the fact that none of us have a lock on the truth. That's why I find the whole analyst phenomena troublesome. Some of these people are terrible. Others are good. None of them are god.
I know what I'm doing ONLY in the sense that, A) I understand the risks I'm getting myself into and B) I understand how far I am from being good enough to clean out my mutual funds and think I can do this for a living <g>
Good trading,
Tom |
