Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (50528)	5/4/2006 7:25:54 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) of 116555

Mish: Good comments: Am currently slowly building up puts.... adding to house builders, expanding my techs and eye-balling the mortgage providers. Not in a rush but with premiums so low, it does provide one with significant impetus to fill at least a corner of the closet. For a bit of speculation, I took on some HD Jan 40 puts. Reasons: HD's revenues have been jazzed by - add-on activities of hordes of amateur home renovators - HD is a major supplier to small and medium sized "local contractors".... who have a remarkable track record for walking away from their debts when the going gets tough - HD has been acquiring suppliers to the heavyweight contractors...guys who walk, but do it with sophistication. (g) - all of the above have been provided with plenty of HD credit (buy now pay 6 months from now, etc). Yes, they lay off the risk, but...... - stock price still juicy - "real estate bubble deflating won't hurt us"..... say what? (g) - options cheap - hasn't attracted much negative press so far. Probably no more than a donation to the put writers society of America. (g) Best, Earlie

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