I meant to write this last night, but...
This is the first birthday of the thread. Where have we gone in that year, and what has been done?
Did I, by a fluke, start this at the beginning of peak plateau?? World oil production has essentially been flat over the last year.
Deffeyes says the peak occurred 12/16/05...
Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding
February 11, 2006
In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005.
Message 22172514
It's still not clear if we are at peak or not. Some of the flatness can be attributed to natural and political events, but some is definitely due to peaking. Over the past year, 3 out of the 4 largest fields have peaked, and the 4th, SA's Ghawar, the largest in the world, may have. Light sweet crude has peaked, Brits and Norway have peaked in the North Sea, and I am wondering about Venezuela. A year ago, people in the field were talking about how the world would need 120 mil BPD in 20 years. I optimistically think we will never get over 90 mil, and, it may turn out we never get above today's 85 M. In that case, the Chinese Century will be cancelled due to lack of energy.
The first mention of the price of oil I could find at the Nest was on 5/22/05, when an article on tar sands mentioned oil at 50 bucks. Today, LSC is at $70, after bouncing off $75 earlier this week. I'm guessing gas was about $2.50; today, I couldn't find regular for under $3.20. And of course, all sources of energy, including firewood, have moved up in price too. However, MSM is finally starting to talk about the possibility of running out of oil; well not out, MT, no more left, but y'all know what I mean. And the PMs are on a tear; Au is probably up about $200, Ag about $6; $682 & $13.90 right now.
So what's happened over the last year? Nationally, nothing. Well, I take that back. Tax credits for renewables were passed. That's worth 2K to me. State levels, some action; Cal passed the Million Solar Roof Bill, for instance. I've gotta give Gov. Roidboy some credit. He's not 100% bad.At the local level, maybe things are beginning to happen. There is the movement for sustainability going on here and Bill on da Hill sez it's happening where he is, too. But visible progress seems unbearably slow.
Especially in my case. It's probably been a year since I said I was going to go solar. What with returned rebate paperwork, tax credits starting only after 1/1/06, too much rain, and my inability to make my contractor move as fast as I'd like him to, I just, today, gave him the electrical permit and the money for the panels. So now I have to dig the holes B4 they call me up and say "We will CU tomorrow". But, in the interim, a neighbor went solar a few months ago. New house, off the grid, and it was cheaper to go solar than to bring in the wires. I wanted to be the first on the hill, but I was overjoyed to see it go in. A few more folks I know are in the process, too.
Beyond that, I've bought a little bit of ammo, some canning jars, a few tools, a bit of preserved food. Not much in the way of preparedness, I'm afraid.
And trying to tell people? I gave out a number of copies of End of Suburbia, and usually found mice elf saying "You should have watched it when oil was $45; now that it's 50 (55) (60)(65), will you watch?" LMAO.
Well, let's see what the next year brings.
Cassandra Rat |
