INDU, SPX, COMPX, NDX, QQQQ....Possible rally targets.
Faithful, as always, to my promises, Freepie....did a lot of fiddling around over the weekend.....with numbers, of course (g)..and back at you.
Would say first, no way I can handle your question re "overshoot". One or more indexes may indeed "overshoot" targets..or undershoot"..but would be even more out on a limb trying to grab hold of that !!
I have calculated two sets of targets:.....one based on my classic TA voodoo, as previously posted and charted; another EW-based, with two alternatives shown as possible. The EW-based numbers in ALL cases assume we are dealing with a Wave V up, which began in Summer/Fall 2004, off of the 2002 low. (Anyone thinking this assumption is wrong ..Shack..??...would have to throw all these numbers out.....leaving only my TA numbers, for what they may be worth..g)
The two EW-based target sets are based on two EW principles of "wave equality":
..........(1).Two of the impulse waves will tend toward equality when one of the impulse waves (especially Wave III) extends (i.e. Waves I and V would tend towrd equality.)
...........(2)..Wave V of an impulse is usually related by FIB to the net advance from the beginning of Wave ! to the top of Wave III. I have taken two different measures of "related"; (a) 0.382 ,and (b) 0.618.
And here is the range of targets I calculate from the foregoing:
INDU..My TA 11,611...EW(1) 12,621.09...EW(2a) 11,540.38...EW(2b) 12,671.40
SPX..............1,347.96............1,316.93.................1,268.73................1,397.29
COMPX........2,433.63.............2,197.19.................2,381.47...............2,771.20
NDX.............1,880.................1,892.00..................1,779.87..............2,075.15
QQQQ............45.98...................47.13......................44.38..................51.81
Taking account of the Friday highs:
INDU at 11,586.38 has surpassed one target...leaving 11,611-12,671....
SPX at 1,326.53 has surpassed two......leaving 1,347-1,397...
COMPX at 2,344.37 has surpassed one..leaving 2.381-2,771.. (wide range..??)
NDX at 1716.19 has not surpassed any....leaving wide range 1.779-2,075..
QQQQ at 42.21 also has not met any target....with range left at 44-52.
I have taken a look at %age retrace of the 2000-2002 bear implied by these numbers,,,,,They range from near or well over 100% for the INDU...to 63-80% for the SPX....but MUCH lower %ages....25-40 .....for the Nas group...as I guess would have to be expected given the decimating....and persistent..nature of the Bear in Nas Land....
One question I see in all this that I can't answer..and that's whether the broad TIME relationships make any sense.....We had roughly 2 years for Waves I-IV to form (per me)...and we're approaching now 2 years for Wave V alone.....Need some Shack-like expert to take a look at that..(SNS ..or maybe you would like to volunteer in Shack's scarcity, Freepie..gg)
May try later to put some of foregoing on some annotated charts and post...A lot to grasp, but IMHO may be useful as a road map off of which to mark detours..
And btw...I THINK all my calcs are OK..have checked most....BUT age has its failings......so no guarantees..LOL |
