The Future for Petroleum - a prescient view from 1964 (PDF)
Anthony Francis Fox, The World of Oil (via UBC website)
...At present there is no reason to expect any interruption in the rate of increase in energy consumption in the world. The total population is increasing and every country is industrialising as fast as its available capital resources permit. Nevertheless, a natural mineral deposit like petroleum must be finite in size and will be exhausted at some time. Can we make any reasonable estimate of when this is likely to be?
...therefore, it seems as though the maximum use of petroluem as a source of energy will rise to a maximum of between 26 and 37 x 10**9 bbl. per year in the years 1990-2000 and thereafter there will be a rapid falling off in oil production until by the year 2100 the amount produced each year will be about equal to what was produced in 1915. This means, of course, that from about 1980 onwards other ways of producing energy must replace petroleum if our civilization is to continue on its present path.
...If we have to look forward to a decrease in the volume of oil produced from world sources after 2000, the motor-car as we know it today will by then have passed its heyday. Fuel for it can be expected to become a good deal more expensivve, unless some alternative can be found and the family outing by motor-car at the week-end may be as much a luxury to our grandchildren as uncrowded roads are to us today.
... let us look for a moment at the possible errors in the assumptions we have made and flaws in the reasoning from them.
...Possible Undiscovered Sources of Petroleum
...New Methods in Exploration
...Secondary Recovery
(1964)
Submitteer RM writes:
A marvellous article of historical interest to Peak Oilers.. [It appears in the book] The World of Oil, written by an A.F. Fox, Head of the Geological and Geophysical Division of the Kuwait Oil Company.
What caught my eye was the projected peak of crude Oil production (Fig 64). Although Mr. Fox cites Hubbert's many contributions throughout his textbook, he seems unaware of Hubbert's predictions with respect to peaking-so this appears to be an independent assessment. He makes a best guess of a peak of some 26 Gb/y around the year 2000. Not bad!
This was made in the early 1960's, as he states "no forecast can hope to come close to the truth through the mists of 40 years..."
He also discusses the estimate of Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (1500 Gb), enhanced oil recovery, the Athabasca Tar Sands of Alberta, and even mentions the fuel cell!
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