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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Road Walker who wrote (287457)5/10/2006 1:25:05 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 1571806
 
If it could and did happen than our oil use would decline. OTOH the rest of the world's oil use would probably continue to climb, and the cost in replacing so many cars in 5 years would be high. I think the average car in the US is 9 years old and the average has been climbing. Also to get to 90% you have to get more than just the average car. There are a couple of hundred million cars on the road in the US. Replacing an extra hundred million or so of them in the next 5 years would be very expensive, even if it will lower the price of oil, and you subtract the savings from the cost of the cars.

If I dropped 30k to get a new car, and saved 10mpg, It would take me about 60 years to make up the purchase price. (assuming $3 a gallon gasoline) Sure I'd get money from selling my current car, but than someone else would be driving a new car that gets about 20MPG.

Even if having more efficient vehicles on the road will make gasoline cost 1/2 of what it will cost without the change (assume $2 a gallon with the change and $4 without) it would still take over 22 years to make up the purchase price, and that isn't taking in to account the time value of money.

And yes tax incentives and penalties can change the calculus for individuals making decisions about their cars, but it doesn't make the cost go away, it just transfers it.
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