TJ and everyone else,
I wonder what is your current view on the relative attraction of contra-USD currencies, i.e. CAD vs AUD vs EUR?
Over the past 2 days, the EUR seems to be outperforming the other 2 above, yet it would seem, their fundamentals are in fact better with improving commodities prices than the EUR (or the USD)? Should one sell CAD (or AUD) holdings and move to EURs?
Is there an explanation for this, and could China be behind this, ie buying Euros to bolster PBofC with non-USD FX reserves while, in parallel, flooding the commodity markets with its excess USDs.
Also, do you think the Central Banks in China, Middle East, LatAm and selected other countries now dump their USD FX reserves for PGMs but the likes of BHP, Rio Tinto and Freeport willingly mop them up instead! I've always wondered how Bernanke, Trichet, Brown et al count the USD holdings in their CBs coffers when they are in reality, increasingly being held not by the Central Banks but by these big MNCs in tax efficient 'treasury' locations such as Ireland, HK, Caymans, etc.
Selva |
