An interesting twist:
Gasoline Costs Jeopardize Republicans in Car-Heavy U.S. Exurbs
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- On the outskirts of Philadelphia, where Shawn Sims and her family commute more than 1,000 miles a week by car, the soaring cost of gasoline is making the lifelong Republican rethink her loyalties in the November elections.
Sims voted for President George W. Bush and Representative James Gerlach, Republicans both, in 2004. Now that her family's monthly gasoline budget has more than doubled -- to $1,000 -- from last year, she says Democrats may do more to promote cheaper alternative fuels.
``Oil companies have too much of a monopoly,'' Sims, 40, said while filling up her two-ton Dodge Durango SUV in her town of Exton, 32 miles west of Philadelphia. ``Gas should be regulated like a utility. It's a necessity, especially for those of us outside the city where we have to drive everywhere.''
Democrats are trying to capitalize on the frustration of voters such as Sims to target Gerlach, 51, and seven other Republicans from California to Connecticut who represent exurban areas like Exton. These car-dependent communities on the fringes of traditional suburbs are the fastest-growing areas in the U.S. and have mostly backed Republicans, political analysts say.
Democratic challengers have been holding rallies at gas stations criticizing Republicans for being too supportive of oil companies, said Sarah Feinberg, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is coordinating the party's efforts to retake the House of Representatives. The Republicans hold a 29-seat advantage in the 435-member House, which has two vacancies. That means the Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take control.
Vulnerable to Attack
Three of the targeted Republican House members are in Connecticut: Christopher Shays, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons. The others are Clay Shaw of Florida, Steve Chabot of Ohio, Heather Wilson of New Mexico and Richard Pombo of California, the chairman of the House Resources Committee, who has long sought to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration.
Diane Farrell, who's running against Shays, said Republicans are vulnerable to attacks over high energy costs because they have controlled the White House, House and Senate for four years. Public opinion polls show that voters agree.
A New York Times/CBS News poll released yesterday found that just 13 percent of the public approves of Bush's handling of gasoline prices. More than half, 57 percent, of 1,241 adults polled said they trusted Democrats more to keep prices low, compared to 11 percent who preferred Republicans. The poll, taken May 4 to May 8, had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
`Great Issue'
While exurbs contain only about 5 percent of the U.S. population, or about 15 million people, a 2004-2005 U.S. Census report found they made up seven of the nation's 10 fastest- growing counties. What's more, ``they trend Republican,'' said William Frey, a demographer with the Washington-based Brookings Institution. ``They like low taxes and control of what's going on.''
That's why the cost of gasoline is a ``great issue for Democrats,'' he said. Cars are ``crucial'' to the exurbs, and ``a lot of the public perception is that Republicans are in the pocket of oil interests.''
Ruy Teixeira, a demographer with the New York-based Century Foundation, said the parties should focus on what he calls ``exurbia'' -- a broader area that combines relatively undeveloped exurbs and those that have become emerging suburbs through rapid population growth. In 1996, such voters split evenly between Democrats and Republicans; by 2004, 56 percent supported Bush, he said.
Quality of Life
``Something like gas prices really affects their quality of life on a daily basis,'' he said. ``This is definitely something that could potentially benefit the Democrats.''
Sean McCaffrey, a Republican pollster with Wilson Research Strategies, a Washington-based public-opinion firm, said ``there's the potential for Republican vulnerability right now.'' Even so, he said, ``if Republicans try to pass a comprehensive energy package to bring down gas prices before the November elections, they have an opportunity to come off as big winners.''
Democrats, he said, risk coming off as obstructionists: ``With prices so high, it's getting harder and harder for them to block new drilling.'' The House Republican leadership has said it's planning votes to address the energy crunch.
Gerlach's district straddles traditional suburbs and exurbs. Exton falls on Philadelphia's Main Line, which gives it the benefit of a train station, although many commuters don't work downtown.
Girding for Rematch
Democrat Lois Murphy, who lost to Gerlach in 2004 by one of the narrowest margins of all House races in the country -- 1.8 percent -- is making gasoline prices a key issue in her rematch against the Republican this year.
``He's been in office for 3 1/2 years, and he hasn't taken steps in a long-term, proactive way to address our oil consumption and work towards energy independence,'' said Murphy, 43.
Gerlach said he's trying to help bring down oil prices and in December introduced legislation to expand tax credits for hybrid vehicles. He said he's supported higher fuel-efficiency standards. ``I'd like to hear what Murphy can do to bring down these prices,'' said Gerlach, who's running for his third term.
Exton is abutted by farms, and the town's sprawling layout makes it difficult to run errands or go to school without a car. Most workers commute by automobile to jobs in and around the city or other parts of the district.
`I Can't Afford This'
Amit Raol, who lives in Exton, commutes about 100 miles a day to Bensalem, 25 miles northeast of Philadelphia. ``I made the mistake of buying a six-cylinder car a year ago when prices were okay,'' the 27-year-old aeronautics engineer said while gassing up his Nissan Infiniti sedan. ``I'm looking to sell it now and get a more fuel-efficient car. I can't afford this.''
India-born Raol, who became a U.S. citizen last year, said when he casts his first vote in November, he's pretty sure it will be for a Democrat.
Jim Gehring, who owns a small distribution company in Exton, voted for Gerlach in 2004. Gehring, 49, said he hasn't yet made up his mind who he'll back in November, although he's ``starting to come around to the Democrats' message of conservation and alternatives.''
Tim Coldren, 52, an antiques dealer in Exton who drives a Ford van, is also a lifelong Republican who's having second thoughts about his party.
``For years, they put the kibosh on alternative energy, put the kibosh on fuel-efficient cars, electric cars,'' said Coldren. He hasn't decided who he'll vote for, although he says he admires Murphy for having ``turned up the heat'' on gasoline prices.
``I'm driving a land yacht here, so I get spanked all the time,'' he said. ``It's $100 to fill this truck.'' |
